February 24th shook the world, and the lives of Ukrainians as Russia launched its unjustified and inhumane attack on Ukraine. Since then, the brutal conquering war has been going on for over 20 months now and after some successful counteroffensives but also fierce defending of occupied territories, the frontline stalls and hardens. Both armies already suffered immense casualties and have put massive resources on the battlefield. While the Ukrainians have the ongoing, but not indefinitely endless support of western countries, Russia loses more and more men and material, but has lager resources than ukraine. Besides from military measures, thousands of civilians were killed and whole regions destroyed. The suffering of civilians, even more now in the winter, as Russia will be targeting especially civilian infrastructure again, makes the question for an end of the war very urgent. In the following essay, I will discuss this key question, regarding military resources as well as foreign and domestic political factors. I will point out different scenarios which I think are probable. The how´s and when´s of the end of the war is of course speculation at this point, but I think discussing this topic is of great importance in giving a perspective for a peaceful Europe and an independent Ukraine.
At the first days of the Russian invasion, the common opinion was that Russia will take Ukraine in a matter of weeks. And surprisingly, the Russian leadership, especially President Putin thought that as well. News revealed that the Russian military planned to invade Ukraine in a matter of 10 days. Now into the 20th month of the war, the Russian confidence has taken a big reality check. After Russia captured roughly 1/5 of Ukraine in summer 2022, the armed forces of Ukraine launched a massive counteroffensive in September, regaining a lot of territory and taking back the region capital Kherson. But even before the counteroffensive, the Russians where surprised by the strength of the underrated Ukrainian army. Going against the supposedly second strongest army in the world, the Ukrainians managed to defend their capital and most parts of the country. They achieved that trough great sacrifices, superior strategy and a lot of solidarity among themselves. Another big factor, explaining the success of the Ukrainian army is also of course the support by the western world, especially the NATO. Having a bigger budget and a bigger army, Russia still is not capable of conventionally overcome the Ukrainian defenders.
Nuclear escalation
This leads us to the first scenario, an escalation of the war. The Russian military is, as described above, not strong enough beat the Ukrainians with conventional weapons. Even further mobilizations won’t solve the logistical and motivational problems that cripple their combat potential. It has reached the maximum of brutality and its capabilities with conventional weapons. But still, Russia has the escalation dominance, because it got nuclear weapons in its arsenal, which the Ukrainians do not. Hardliners of the Russian military have been strongly demanding the use of those nuclear weapons, because they are the last superiority that the Russian army has over the Ukrainian army. The use of nuclear weapons would isolate Russia even more than it is already, but that does not stop Moscow from threatening Ukraine and the world from doing exactly that. Realistic scenarios for an actual deployment of nuclear forces would be smaller, so called tactical nuclear weapons with limited range. The deployment could reach different levels of escalation, for example from detonating a bomb over the black sea as a threat, to actual use on the battlefield. This scenario is very unlikely, mostly because of the international reaction on a nuclear attack. Even partners like China stated that the use of nuclear capabilities would be totally unacceptable. The West, and especially the US, has already made clear, that a nuclear attack would result in a strong response that does not exclude a military intervention. In this case nuclear weapons would not end the war but just escalate it even more, maybe even lead to a global nuclear Armageddon. So, Russia must hope for Ukraine to surrender in consequence of nuclear weapons. Besides this realist perspective, using nuclear weapons is, even for a rogue state like Russia, a big taboo, causing immense risks and suffering. But still, with Russia being backed into a corner and at risk of losing the war, this scenario is possible.
Coup de Etat or civil war
Speaking of backed into a corner, the role of the Russian leadership, especially Vladimir Putin, is very important when discussing possible endings of the war. This leads us to a more probable scenario, a civil war or a coup, removing Putin from power. Putin and his retro imperialistic policy of “Russian Mir”, a Russian world is the main reason for this war. Since being in office, Putin transformed the liberal democracy, that Russia aspired to be after the collapse of the USSR, into an authoritarian regime. He spread a narrative that praised Russia as a world superpower and started war in Georgia and Chechenia under the justification of defending Russian People. The same nationalist justification was used 2014, in Ukraine, leading to the annexation of Crimea and ultimately in the war 2022. Nevertheless, Putin gained a lot of popularity in Russia over his period of office. That is slowly changing, as Russia fails to succeed in Ukraine. British defence intelligence recently claimed that only 25 percent of the Russian citizens still supported the war at the end of 2022, compared to 80 percent at the start in February. A lot of the discontent of the Russian society with the war started with the partly mobilization of Russian reservists on the 21. Of September 2022.
At the start of the invasion, the Russian propaganda would not refer to its aggression as war but defined it as a special operation. The sole purpose of that narrative was calming down the own population. The first troops entering Ukraine were special forces and mercenaries such as the Wagner Group. But as the war raged on, and Russia lost a lot of troops, it had to replace them with mobilised reservists and conscripts. That really opened the eyes of the Russians, as friends and family were sent to die on the Ukrainian battlefield. But is the discontent enough to overthrow the regime?
Since the start of the war, there have been protests in Russia but especially at the beginning, they have been heavily supressed by security forces. Even before, the state supressed opposition, such as Alexander Nalwany. The regime is prepared for domestic resistance. Over the years of power, Putin established a strong internal security structure. With his inner circle, the Siloviki, taking up high posts in secret services und politics, he built up the FSB, and the Russian National Guard to secure his power. From a liberalistic perspective, the people of Russia still could overthrow the regime and end the various violations of human rights, in Ukraine, as well as in Russia that are being committed.
The closest Putin and his regime came to be overthrown was in summer of 2023 when the Wagner mercenary group decided to wage a rebellion against the Russian armed forces over internal rivalries and conflicts between the conventional military leadership and the wganer leader Prigozhin. Although they marched almost till Moscow, Prigozhin cancelled the coup after minor clashes with the Russian armed forces, including destroying a helicopter of Russian officers. Prigozhin officially cancelled the march because he the cost of Russians lives would be too high. Other sources claimed he got a call from the FSB with his wife and child in captivity. The coup was directed against the claimed corrupt leadership in the Russian army especially against defense minister shoigu. After an exile for the Wagner leaders in Belarus, Moscow took control over the wagner group. A few months later, a plane carrying Prigozhin as well as Dimitri utkin and other wagner leaders was destroyed near Moscow. While its obvious that Putin ordered it to be destroyed, the official narrative is still an accident. So if even a big mercenary force is not able to overthrow the regime, it’s going to be hard for the Russian resistance to fight against the regime
And also, the factor of propaganda and indoctrination over the course of years is not to be forgotten. For most of the Russians, NATO and the west are the aggressors, and every attempt of revolution can be turned into a foreign interference by the propaganda machines. Anyway, there’s probably still a lot of Russians who got friends and relatives in Ukraine and who doubt the states narrative and do not support the human rights violations. The question is, if most Russians is ready and willing to risk starting a revolution. Another option would be an internal coup from putins inner circle.
With the mentioned internal security structures in place to possible suppress civil uprisings, an internal coup could not be prevented by such forces. With staggering losses in Ukraine resulting in unsatisfied oligarchs and politicians, a coup might be the bigger threat for Putin. But in that case, the end of the war is not guaranteed. Hardliners could take Putin’s place, escalating even more. But even if this scenario has a lot of variables, a change of power is almost necessary to end this war.
Ukraine Winning
With having had the focus on scenarios that evolve around Russian initiative, Ukraine still has an active role, making its own decisions and shaping the conflict in favour for them. So, the next possible scenario would be a military win by Ukraine, regaining their territories and therefore ending the war. The Ukrainian armed forces made already made huge regains in their first summer counteroffensive, including a regions capital, Kherson. The city on the Dnipro River is part of the regions that Russia wanted to formally annex after they were illegally invaded.
The success of the Ukrainian army is grounded on superior strategy and the support of its allies. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) had to find ways to defend themselves against a much bigger opponent. They used small, combined arms attack groups and hit and run tactics to face the numerous tank columns of Russia. That way, the combat potential of the Russian units was dispersed. A turning point in the conflict was the supply of Long-Range Artillery Systems, such as HIMARS, from the western allies of Ukraine. Those Systems are superior to the Russians systems in case of range, so the AFU could destroy logistics and posts far into Russian occupied areas.
Also, the use of mobile air defence and anti-tank weapons for example Stingers and NLAWS made it able to destroy a lot of Russian equipment.) The destruction of equipment and logistics is a key factor, with reports saying Russia is wasting more equipment as it can reproduce. Regarding this positive development in the potential of the Ukrainian Army it is possible that the occupied areas could be recaptured. With Russia having worn out its well-trained forces in the early months of war, it must send untrained and badly equipped conscripts against the experienced and skilled Ukrainian defenders. The morale of the newly conscripted troops is low, because of corruption, insufficient training and high losses on the battlefield.
Also, a lot of Russian higher officers were killed already, leaving the Russian forces without capable leaders. On the other hand, Russia did fortify its current position over the winter and will put all of its efforts and resources into defending what they got. After difficulties in the first year, a steady flow of conscripts and volunteers is regaining the Russian armed forces. They upped their tank and plane production and made arms deals with for example north korea to supply their artillery needs. The Ukrainians must hope for more heavy weapons and ongoing support of the west to start new offensives to regain control over their territory. But even western tanks like the leopard could not break through the fortified frontline in the east and south.
If the Russian forces would collapse during a new successful counteroffensive, the Ukrainians would probably reach the Russian borders. Although in recent attacks, Ukrainian drones strook airports deep into Russian territory, Ukraine has no interest in advancing further into Russia. This would probably result in a demilitarized zone between the two countries or a very conflicted border with ongoing clashes. Another question regarding this scenario, is whether Ukraine really wants to take back Crimea, as President Zelensky stated. Russia took control of Crimea in 2014 through an infiltrating operation and has since been developing strong military infrastructure. Regaining the peninsula will pose a great challenge to the AFU, even if they recently reached the black sea headquarters with drones and long range storm shadow missles.
Negotiations
Linked also directly to the recent success of Ukraine, the next scenario is the end of war by negotiations. The Ukraine war is mostly characterized as an attrition ground war, meaning the main goal is to destroy enemy material and personnel to bring them to collapse. That means all the destroyed equipment must be replaced, in order to still compete with the enemy. Mobilizing troops and equipment, firing rockets and artillery, not to mention the logistics behind all that, is very expensive. The Ukrainian Forbes magazine calculated that Russia has put over 82 billion dollars into the first 10 months of war already. Figures for Ukraine are unclear, but solely the damage that has been inflicted on Ukrainian land and infrastructure will be costly to repair.
Also, a lot of western aids are going to Ukraine. The war not only strains the economy of both war parties, but the world economy as well. But of course, not only the economy is suffering. The war is costing human lives daily. With losses and sacrifices that high, both parties could see negotiations as a way out. They could lead to a temporarily or ultimate end of the war. But under which conditions? First, Russia would have to make reparations to rebuild what has been destroyed. Secondly there would need to be amendments by Russia, to not attack Ukraine again. Although Russia has no credibility anymore, there are ways to guarantee those amendments. For example, a treaty guaranteeing sovereignty for Ukraine with international observers. The mistakes of the 2014” Minsk Treaty” cannot be repeated in that process, meaning there must be serious consequences for Russia, exceeding sanctions, if they break the treaty. Another key question in the matters of negotiations is, what will happen to the Russian occupied territories. Ukraine’s aim in this war is to recapture all their territory including Crimea. Although it is their right, it might not be a realistic demand when it comes to negotiations with Russia. The Russian leadership won’t leave the conflict with less territory than before.
Concurrently, giving pieces of Ukraine to Russia by negotiations will officially reward Russia for its aggression. Additionally, the strategic position of both parties, meaning who got the upper hand at the time of negotiations, is vastly important. That’s also the reason why Ukraine should wait out the winter and try to make more ground before starting talks with Russia. This is the most probable scenario now, with the frontlines becoming more and more deadlocked, and the pace of the conflict getting slower. With Citizens getting more frustrated on both sides, negotiations could also be demanded by the people, (55 percent of Russians already favour peace talks), if the war goes on for years.
Russia Winning
The last scenario is a slow military win by Russia or more partly annexation of Ukrainian territory by Russia. In 2023 the frontlines haven’t moved very much, with Russia taken back Bakhmut and Ukraine gaining little in the south, the overall gain in territory was, even if not much, by the Russians. At the same time, some voices in the western world call for less support to Ukraine, some from the EU states like Slovakia and even big parts of the republicans in the US.
With the new conflict between Israel and Palestine, as well as the possible invasion of Taiwan, the focus of the United States could easily shift away from the “European problem” of the Ukraine war. Less and less support of possibly more right-wing EU Governments and the us could lead to losses of the Ukraine army or at least no capabilities to regain old territories. The question is, if Russia has the resources and internal support to wage the attrition war, till the international support of Ukraine fades.
The foregoing discussion has attempted to outline different possible scenarios of ending the war in Ukraine. Certainly, there are a lot of other possibilities, as this war is very dynamic and unpredictable from time to time. The scenarios that were pointed out could also come hand in hand or increase each other in probability. For example, a military win over the Russian forces makes regime change in Russia more probable. Or on the other hand, a popular regime change replacing Putin with liberal, democratic leadership can lead to negotiations and amendments to Ukraine.
But the danger of nuclear escalation by Russia can also be triggered by continuously successful Ukrainian forces. For nothing is safe to forecast, its sure that this aggression must end. There are approximately 10 million Ukrainians being displaced, thousands killed and even more injured by the illegal invasion, that Russia inflicted on its neighbour. A Neighbour, with which Russia shares a lot of similarities and history, but a neighbour that still has an own culture, an own language and a right to be independent and to be free from russification. Here, it is also important to notice that peace cannot be discussed over the heads of Ukraine by the West and Russia. Despite the big support of western countries, Ukraine must make decisions for its own, everything else diminishes their autonomy the same as Russia is aspiring.
Comments